Government and industry insiders have indicated that a decision on the Jackdaw gas development may be made by the middle of September, potentially just before the UK Parliament rises for the annual party conference recess.
The project originally secured approval under the Conservative administration in 2022. However, progress was halted following a ruling by Scotland's highest civil court after environmental campaigners argued that ministers had failed to properly assess its full climate implications.
According to the project's operators, Jackdaw could account for around 6% of UK gas production at its peak.
Environmental organisations dispute that figure, claiming the field would meet only about 2% of national demand once imported gas supplies are factored into the calculation.
Legal action against Jackdaw began shortly after consent was granted in 2022. Similar challenges were later brought against the Rosebank oil field west of Shetland after it received approval in 2023.
In a landmark judgment last year, the Court of Session in Edinburgh found that both developments had been approved unlawfully. Judges concluded that the government had not adequately considered the emissions generated when the extracted oil and gas are ultimately burned.
The court ordered more comprehensive climate assessments to be produced, leading to updated emissions analyses being released for public consultation in July.
Jackdaw and Rosebank are both managed by Adura, a partnership between Shell and Norwegian energy company Equinor. Rosebank also has backing from Aberdeen-headquartered Ithaca Energy, which holds a 20% stake in the project.
Emissions projections published by Adura suggest that Jackdaw could generate up to 35.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over its expected 11-year lifespan. The company believes a more realistic estimate is closer to 23.6 million tonnes. Those figures equate to roughly 90% and 60% respectively of Scotland's total greenhouse gas emissions recorded in 2023.
Environmental groups remain firmly opposed to further North Sea drilling, arguing that expanding fossil fuel extraction undermines efforts to reduce carbon emissions at a time when heatwaves and other extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity worldwide.
Campaigners also reject claims that new oil and gas projects will strengthen the UK's energy security. Instead, they contend that accelerating investment in renewable and low-carbon technologies would provide a more sustainable route to protecting jobs and meeting future energy needs.
New gas field off the coast of Aberdeen set to come onstream
